- By outcome — a model either estimates a probability (classification, e.g. will they respond?) or an amount (regression, e.g. how much will they give?).
- By scope — a model is either about a specific action (“if we mail this person now, what happens?”) or about a supporter’s trajectory (“what will this person do over the coming year?”).
The models are independent — use one on its own or combine several. Which ones fit your programme is something we’ll scope with you.
Two ways to slice the catalogue
Every model sits in one cell of this grid — outcome down the side, scope across the top. That’s usually enough to find the one you need.Where each model fits the supporter journey
As a supporter moves through their relationship with you, a different model supports the next decision.Targeting a campaign — who to contact
DM propensity
Will this supporter respond to a mailing? Use it to rank a mailing list and cut volume without losing income.
TM reachability
Will we actually reach this person by phone? Prioritise dialling lists.
TM conversion
Given we reach them, will they accept the offer? Focus calls on likely converters.
Email engagement
Will this supporter open or click? Prioritise digital sends.
How much to ask — the value of an action
Expected amount
How much is this supporter likely to give in response to this action? Combine with propensity to target on expected revenue, not just likelihood.
Ask amount
What set of suggested amounts (the “ask string”, e.g. €20 / €50 / €100) maximises yield for this supporter?
Keeping supporters — retention & risk
Subscription churn
Will a regular giver cancel their direct debit in the coming months? Drives save / win-back programmes.
Active donor
Will a currently active supporter give again in the next 12 months?
Middle donor
Retention focused on the valuable “middle” segment — where small movements move a lot of income.
Reactivating donor
Will a lapsed donor come back if we ask? Prioritise win-back appeals by likelihood to respond.
Subscription acquisition
Will a one-off donor convert to a recurring gift? Find your best regular-giving prospects.
Long-term value
Lifetime value (LTV)
What is this supporter worth over a multi-year horizon? Drives stewardship investment.
Donation frequency
How many gifts will this supporter make in the next year?
Timing — when something will happen
Time to next gift
How long until this supporter is likely to give again?
Time to churn
When is a supporter likely to stop giving?
How models combine
The models are designed to work together — combined, they describe a supporter more completely than any one alone:- Propensity × expected amount — rank a mailing or call list on expected revenue (likelihood × value), not likelihood alone.
- Subscription churn × lifetime value — retention effort weighed against the recurring income at stake.
- Active donor and reactivating donor — the same supporter, before and after they lapse.