Will a currently-active supporter give again in the year ahead?
Predicts whether a recently-active supporter will give again — so you can catch silent attrition before it happens.What it predicts — The probability that a supporter who has been active recently makes at least one further gift within the next window (e.g. 12 months).Who it scores — Supporters with recent activity: the “alive” base. It’s the gatekeeper step for longer-term value work.The decision it drives — Spot silent attrition early and put at-risk supporters into stewardship before they drift away.Worked example — Scoring the active file each quarter surfaces a group whose next-gift probability has dropped. They receive an impact update and a light-touch ask, and give-again rates in that group beat a holdout.What good looks like — Fewer supporters slipping quietly to lapsed.