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Predicts whether a recently-active supporter will give again — so you can catch silent attrition before it happens. What it predicts — The probability that a supporter who has been active recently makes at least one further gift within the next window (e.g. 12 months). Who it scores — Supporters with recent activity: the “alive” base. It’s the gatekeeper step for longer-term value work. The decision it drives — Spot silent attrition early and put at-risk supporters into stewardship before they drift away. Worked example — Scoring the active file each quarter surfaces a group whose next-gift probability has dropped. They receive an impact update and a light-touch ask, and give-again rates in that group beat a holdout. What good looks like — Fewer supporters slipping quietly to lapsed.
Pairs well with Reactivating donor — the next stage if they do lapse.

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