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Predicts, for supporters we actually reach by phone, how likely they are to say yes — so agent time goes to the most convertible. What it predicts — The probability of a positive outcome (a yes) given the person is reached. Who it scores — Only reached contacts. Calls that never connect are deliberately left out, so the model learns the conversation, not the pick-up. The decision it drives — Prioritise which reachable supporters get a call, and match your strongest agents or best offer to the most convertible. Worked example — Among reachable supporters, the model flags the top third by conversion likelihood. The team calls those first with the premium ask, and overall pledge rate per hour rises. What good looks like — A higher yes-rate on the calls you choose to make.
Pairs well with TM reachability — reachability builds the call order; conversion prioritises within it.

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