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Predicts which one-off donors are most ready to commit to a recurring gift — so conversion asks focus on the best prospects. What it predicts — For supporters not currently on a recurring mandate, the probability they start a new subscription (regular gift) in the next window. Who it scores — Non-subscribers: anyone without an active recurring mandate today (optionally narrowed to recently-active contacts). The decision it drives — Target regular-giving conversion asks at the one-off donors most ready to commit, instead of blanketing the whole base. Worked example — Ahead of a regular-giving push, the model ranks cash donors by conversion likelihood. The campaign focuses on the top tier and lifts sign-ups per contact versus an untargeted send. What good looks like — More new regular givers per contact asked — and each one is worth far more over time than a single gift.
Pairs well with Subscription churn — protect them once they’ve joined.

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