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Predicts which lapsed donors are most likely to give again — so win-back budget goes where it can actually recover income. What it predicts — For lapsed supporters, the probability they give again in the next window. Who it scores — Genuinely lapsed donors: people who gave at some point in the longer history (e.g. within five years) but not in the recent period (e.g. the last year). Currently-active donors are excluded. The decision it drives — Prioritise win-back appeals: spend reactivation budget on the lapsed supporters most likely to respond, and leave the truly gone alone. Worked example — A reactivation mailing to the whole lapsed file is expensive. Scoring it first, the team mails the top-ranked half and recovers most of the win-backs at far lower cost. What good looks like — More reactivations per euro of win-back spend.
Pairs well with Active donor — which catches supporters before they reach the lapsed stage.

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